We're all exhausted by social distancing, masks, and the constant need for sanitization. Unfortunately, a new wave of COVID-19 mutations is emerging, and these variants seem to be far more contagious than the original strain. While we don’t yet know if they’ll completely bypass existing vaccines or immunity, experts are watching closely. This has led many people to ask: Should I change my behavior now?
The short answer is no—most of the same precautions still apply. But health professionals are personally being more cautious, such as switching to N95 respirators and avoiding crowded spaces even more than before.
Here’s what you should know:
- New variants like B.1.1.7 (the UK variant) and CAL.20C (California variant) are more contagious, and some may reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines. However, data is still limited.
- It's possible that even more dangerous variants will emerge over time, though scientists are working hard to track them.
- Experts still hope the pandemic will end by late 2021, but it's wise to prepare for things to get worse before they improve.
- If these new variants become dominant—as they are in the UK, Ireland, and expected in the U.S. by March—governments may impose stricter measures, including lockdowns.
- Countries like Germany have already started requiring N95 masks instead of regular cloth masks due to the rise in transmissible variants.
- If you’re concerned about future restrictions or supply shortages, it’s not unreasonable to start preparing now.
**What could new variants do?**
There are three types of variants that could significantly impact the course of the pandemic:
1. **More Transmissible Variants**: These spread faster than the original strain, like B.1.1.7 and CAL.20C. The UK variant is estimated to be 70% more contagious.
2. **More Severe Variants**: These could lead to longer illness, higher death rates, or more severe long-term effects. So far, none have been confirmed.
3. **Escape Variants**: These might reduce the effectiveness of vaccines or natural immunity. The South African variant (501Y.V2) and the Brazilian P.1 variant show some resistance, but current vaccines still offer strong protection.
**What variants have we seen so far?**
Several more transmissible variants have emerged globally, with the B.1.1.7 strain being the most well-known. It appears to be significantly more infectious than the original virus. Early studies suggest that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine works against it, though slightly less effectively than with the original strain.
Other variants, like the South African 501Y.V2 and Brazilian P.1, are under close watch for their potential to evade immune responses. While some lab results suggest partial resistance, real-world effectiveness remains unclear.
**What does this mean for us?**
More transmissible variants can quickly outpace the original strain, leading to surges in cases even with existing precautions. This has already happened in the UK and Ireland, and the CDC expects similar trends in the U.S. in the coming months.
More severe or escape variants would pose greater risks, but experts believe they are less likely to dominate the pandemic. However, if they do, they could complicate efforts to achieve herd immunity and require updated vaccines.
**How can you prepare?**
If you've been following safety protocols, keep doing so—but consider stepping up your efforts. Upgrade to an N95 mask if you’ve been using cloth. Avoid public places where possible, and take extra care when shopping or running errands.
Consider alternatives like curbside pickup or online delivery. When you must go out, always wear a mask, use hand sanitizer, and disinfect surfaces whenever you can.
Review our previous guides on how to safely handle packages, clean surfaces, and avoid infection at gas stations or restaurants.
Finally, stay informed and mentally prepared. While the best-case scenario is still possible, it’s important to remain realistic and ready for any outcome. The next few months could be challenging, and it’s better to be proactive than caught off guard.
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