Beixin Building Materials (000786, stocks)
Rating: Overweight
Rating agency: Guotai Junan Securities
The lower growth rate of the company's operating income in the first three quarters was mainly due to the change in revenue recognized by Beixin Housing. The progress of the North New House Zambia project has exceeded 90%. As the income confirmed last year was higher, the income growth rate declined. The sales volume of gypsum board in the first three quarters was about 760 million square meters, and about 300 million square meters in the third quarter. The sharp increase in gross profit margin in the first three quarters was mainly due to the drop in raw material prices.
The company expects sales to remain stable in the fourth quarter of this year. The company will work hard to ensure the current gross margin, but the cost side price changes may bring uncertainty. The company expects production capacity to reach 1.65 billion square meters at the end of the year, and the target of 2 billion square meters is expected to be completed in 2014. Judging from the current capacity utilization rate, Taishan is full of production, and the utilization rate of Dragon brand capacity is relatively low.
From the company's sales data, the impact of real estate regulation on sales volume was not obvious in the first three quarters; the company's sales in the fourth quarter were also relatively normal, and the annual sales growth is expected to reach 20%. Although the US scrap price has rebounded slightly, it is still at a low level. In addition, the fourth quarter is the peak period. The gross profit margin will remain higher in the fourth quarter. Moreover, the company will control the expense ratio and the future sales expense ratio will be relatively stable. The decrease in raw material costs led to an increase in gross profit margin, and the production capacity of 2 billion square meters was steadily advanced; the main risks were in real estate regulation or demand. It is estimated that the company's 2012 and 2013 earnings per share will be 1.22 yuan, 1.62 yuan, giving an "overweight" rating.
Xifei International (000768, shares it)
Rating: Cautious recommendation
Rating agency: Galaxy Securities
The company announced that it will acquire the assets of Shaanxi Fei Group, Zhonghangqi, AVIC Brake and Xifei Group through a fixed increase of RMB 13.11 per share. The profitability and growth expectations of the injected assets are relatively clear. All three companies have profit forecasts and promise to make up the cash in the form of a lower than forecast. According to the forecast data, the estimated net profit of the injected assets from 2012 to 2014 is 129.13 million yuan, 163.93 million yuan and 188.42 million yuan respectively. The growth rates in 2013 and 2014 are 27% and 16% respectively.
The company's original business showed a significant decline last year. This year's revenue growth rate has improved significantly, and the profit growth rate is lower than the income growth rate. It is estimated that the original business income will continue to grow rapidly in 2012, and the income scale will reach more than 10 billion yuan. However, the profitability is under pressure, and the net profit growth attributable to the company is expected to be around 20%, and the profit of newly injected assets will increase to 3 About 100 million yuan. It is estimated that the earnings per share in 2012 and 2013 will be 0.12 yuan and 0.17 yuan. The company's P/E ratio is higher than that of its peers, maintaining a “cautious recommendation†rating.
Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557, stock bar)
Rating: Cautious recommendation
Rating agency: Guosen Securities
The company recently announced that Yinxing injection was approved. The competitive varieties of Kangyuan Ginkgolide injection are mostly large varieties, including exclusive varieties such as Xueshutong Powder Injection and Danhong Injection. In the long run, due to the follow-up approval of such products, the competition in the future is fierce or difficult to achieve. The sales scale of the exclusive varieties of similar Chinese medicine injections.
As a private modern Chinese medicine company, the company pays more attention to R&D, and the new product reserve is richer, but its marketing ability has been weak. At present, only the hot poisonous Ning has a rapid growth and support growth. The new variety of Ginkgolide injection will be enriched after being approved. Line, the company is also expected to take this opportunity to cultivate large varieties of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular fields, but it takes two years of cultivation to gradually contribute to the benefits. It is suggested that the company's existing product line sales are uneven, the accounts receivable are too large, and the profit quality needs to be improved. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2012 to 2014 will be 0.57 yuan, 0.74 yuan, 0.9 yuan. Since the valuation of the price-earnings ratio is not low, it has already included the market expectation of the high growth of heat and poisoning and the approval of the new drug ginkgolide. " Rating.
Dongbai Group (600693, stocks)
Rating: Neutral
Rating agency: Huatai Securities
The dispute over equity is confusing. Under the background of the company's shareholding structure, the second largest shareholder frequently increased its shareholding in the company. We believe that it has the possibility of competing for a controlling stake.
In 2012, the company's store operation performance was general, the main reason can be attributed to three points: First, the country's overall economic environment and consumer environment is poor, from the background to suppress the store traffic and sales; Second, a number of large department stores Aiming at the consumer market in Fuzhou, the supply of Fuzhou commerce and department stores has become saturated. Third, the construction of the subway in the Dongjiekou business district has brought a lot of influence to the company's two main stores. However, the extension of the Lanzhou project is expected to bring a performance turning point in the future. The preliminary demolition work of the Lanzhou project was successfully completed. The foundation pit excavation was carried out at this stage. The construction period is expected to be two and a half years, that is, it will be opened in the middle of 2015.
It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2012 to 2014 are 0.29 yuan, 0.31 yuan and 0.33 yuan respectively. The current valuation is high. In addition, considering the uncertainty of the company's controlling interest or will bring major strategic and personnel adjustments, etc., maintain “Neutral†rating.
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