In the cardboard industry of 2018, the market seems to move from one extreme to the other. Due to the favorable situation in 2017, some cardboard line companies optimistically estimated the market for 18 years and rushed to expand the tile line. In the case of a large contraction of cardboard orders, the overcapacity caused by the overcapacity.
Taking the Pearl River Delta as an example, the entire 2018 corrugated board enterprises are in a semi-saturated state, half of the production capacity has been idle for a long time, and even some newly opened lines have long-term downtime because there are no large-volume orders.
Some insiders pointed out that the low-cost competition in the cardboard industry caused by overcapacity has become very common in paperboard. From the processing fee of 0.6-1.00 square meters last year to the processing fee of 0.2-0.5 now, this part of the price drop is real.
At the moment, the long-term production season is coming in. The paperboard factory faces a dilemma, either increasing the low-cost competitiveness, losing the policy, or directly stopping the loss. In fact, there have been decisive shutdowns in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. After all, the market has never been a good market and there will be no bad market. There is a time course between the peaks and valleys. When the market rebounds, it is not too late to re-enter the market.
Late market demand is not optimistic
For the paper and board industry, the current market can be said to be the worst time since September 2016. Where is the future going, when will the market welcome the spring days?
Obviously, everything is inseparable from the fundamentals of order requirements and various cost factors. The following package is divided into two aspects: export order and domestic demand order.
Some foreign trade practitioners have said that affected by the sweater war, many foreign trade companies rented warehouses in the United States from July to October, and sent orders to the United States in advance in the second half of the year. Therefore, starting from November, foreign trade orders have fallen, and even after New Year's Day, some foreign trade orders are not allowed to be greatly reduced or even disappeared.
In terms of domestic demand, we can see the sales of mobile phones and cars that we are proud of. According to statistics released by Digitimes Research, in the third quarter of 2018, shipments of smartphones in the Chinese market fell by 6.9% year-on-year, which should have been the peak season for mobile phone sales. After experiencing negative growth in August and September, the auto market accelerated its decline in October. In the first week of October, the national average daily retail sales were 15,500 units, down 49% year-on-year; the average daily retail sales in the second week was 63,400 units, down 12% year-on-year; the average daily retail sales in the third week was 53,000 units, down 23% year-on-year. The Association expects that the overall sales of domestic passenger vehicles will fall by about 20% in October.
Exports are shipped in advance, and domestic demand, gold, silver, silver, and silver are grayed out. The packaging orders in the next few months are obviously lacking in support. Paper prices want to respond to the rebound situation, the difficulty is not small.
Price reduction should be cautious
Soon after entering the new contract year, I think many packaging and printing companies have already received the customer's price cuts. I think the bosses are annoyed, should they accept the biggest concern of customers?
In Xiaobian's view, the price cut should be cautious and cautious! Otherwise, I am afraid that I will be deeply immersed in the mud and unable to extricate myself.
First of all, the paper price frequently shouts, how big is the decline? The data is very clear, the drop is only the part that slowly rises this year, the end of the year back to the beginning of the year, the 18-year price of the whole market is depressed Actually, it has not fallen much!
Secondly, in 2018, the biggest pain of small and medium-sized packaging and printing enterprises was the sharp increase in factory rents. Yangcheng Evening News reporter found that since 2015, some intermediary companies from Shenzhen, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places began to take over a large number of factories, becoming a veritable "two-room east", the factory rents soared, and "patterns" have increased. The reporter randomly visited the industrial districts of Houjie, Tangxia, Liaobu, Daowei, Gaochun, Hengli, Dongkeng, etc. Compared with two years ago, the rent of the factory buildings generally rose, with an average increase of 50%. Above, and the Shenzhen area has more than doubled. Take Changan, Tangxia, Fenggang, etc. as an example, the factory rent price is mostly around 30 yuan / square meter. The highest rent in Songshan Lake has exceeded 35 yuan / square meter.
Therefore, when the carton industry is not launching low-price competition, or accepting large price cuts from customers, the price increase is likely to be the main theme of next year!
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